Sunday, June 10, 2018

Indian Traditional knowledge in predicting rains


Science is heavily biased towards European countries or towards America. In the process of enforcing this western education, we have killed what was "scientific" and "Indian".

Every educated or Un-educated Indian was following a local Indian calendar system. Using this system, people knew planetary position of sun, moon and most of the planets.. They were very well aware of the seasons and associated cyclical patterns. For example food pattern, rainy season, sickness period (diseases that spreads seasonally due to mosquito, parasites etc), Water conservation etc.

People also knew when to spend money, when to conserve resources, comfortable time to travel, convenient time to take time off from occupation and encourage culture, art etc...Things were planned and activities happened with lot of predictability.

So, there was lot of cyclical pattern all aligned to nature. By introducing a western calendar and western education, now, people do not know anything. Just look at the picture below. Summer, Autumn, Spring, Winter are shown. These 4 variety is Europe centric. In India, we see 3 seasons (Summer, Monsoon and Winter). Will India experience summer between 21st June and 21st Sept (Between Summer Solstice and Autumn Equinox)?? But that is what the schools teach kids in India.

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In coastal Konkan / Kerala regions, people see only two seasons (Monsoon and Summer). Winter is very short or there may be rains in winter also. Similarly in North people see 3 seasons. Himachal and Kashmir, people may experience all 4 seasons (as they see cold and extreme cold months, while summer may be very short). Due to diversity, teaching one solution may make the people dumb and they may not be trained or prepared to handle situation in their local environment, as they do not understand it as it reveals itself.

Planning as per western calendars is disruptive. Hindu festival dates keep changing from year to year. In trying to please west, Indian govt has caused Unnecessary burden on all Indians. By destroying the traditional knowledge, people have missed their natural planning cycles. Now, no body plans anything. Everything is chaotic. Due to this chaotic nature, things are not in optimal fashion and India is paying a heavy price for the inefficiency.

I have given couple of pictures to show, how western system actually maps to Indian system.

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See western summer and Indian summer. Then you know, how govt's education policy has destroyed the farmers traditional knowledge. A farmer is quoted as an un-educated fool, who still banks on unpredictable rains. Grows excess food, when not in demand and suffers due to unproductive expenditure (& loan burden) during drought days.


 

Image result for Indian farmer in drought

Rains are very much predictable in India. Unlike west, where rainy conditions change with in a day, rains in India happens due to monsoon. True there are couple of parameters that alters the cycle (lik El-Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole etc, But they are also cyclical). As the parameters are cyclical, it is not difficult to predict rainy season. The exact days and how much rains may need some weather models. But by employing statistical methods, these cycles can also be approximated to a acceptable level. The errors in statistical models may not affect much

60 year study suggests, Indian traditional rain prediction is fairly acceptable. They are acceptable, because, rains in India is fairly cyclical and Panchanga systems are invented mainly to predict rains. It is also a mathematical model. Corrections were incorporated after observing patterns over long long time. Check the prediction and actuals below. 
(http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/Traditional%20almanac%20predicted%20rainfall.pdf)

Prediction
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Actual Data
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A cyclical patterns can be identified by normalizing data (See the red curve, indicating cyclical pattern).












In ancient times, Farmers were the most advanced group, who operated very efficiently. India was prosperous due to its food security and surplus grains. Many community lunches were hosted to make use of the excess food grains. Milk products and salt were distributed free of cost. Only due to the farmers India flourished. Only due to farmers, other professions got their revenues and life. Today, we are trying to dominate the farmer, who was the end pay master. In the name of giving services to a farmer, we are demeaning the services delivered by farmers to the society. This is not good. India made lot of money in the past, by exporting its surplus. Today, India hardly exports any grains. By neglecting Indian farmer, India will endanger its own food security. Without food security, India will not be able to sustain any other achievements. Food is the basic necessity. Instead of achieving a global super giant status in IT, India must had the goal of achieving the same status in agriculture. World should have looked for India for any agrarian problem. Then India had the strategic advantage.


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We are teaching complex calculus to every body, Hardly 1% may use it. We are not teaching common sense knowledge, like seasons to our kids. We are not teaching economics, while everyone needs this branch of science to understand, How oneself will link to prosperity of the nation (also required to understand supply-demand gaps and resulting price variations)?. An general education in economy could help in reducing black marketing. Similarly, ignorance of law is not an excuse in courts. But not even 1 IPC section is taught in schools. Citizens are kept completely in dark regarding legal knowledge. Civilian society is based on legal frameworks. For prosperity of democracy, everyone should understand the fundamental laws of the country, especially common law, law of contracts and personal laws. A reasonable criminal law is also required to be understood. But our education teaches something in hurry or people are made to concentrate on science and maths, ignoring these important basic knowledge, so that, they continue to suffer through out their life.

I do not think, we enjoy our freedom in this country. Un wanted things with little value are marketed and thrust on people. Till these fundamental issues are set right, talking about genuine progress will be simply a talk in Air.

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